California net departures by moving van at 11-year high
Monday, November 30, -1Outbound moves from California via three giant moving companies in 2017 outpaced arrivals by the widest gap in 11 years.
Van line moves are worth watching as a benchmark of the vitality of a state’s economic climate because the folks relocating by major van line across state lines are typically well-do-to households. My trusty spreadsheet, filled with annual migration data from United, Atlas and Allied van lines, shows 28,144 outbound moves from California in 2017 vs. 24,179 vans coming in.
That net outmigration of 3,965 was the nation’s second-biggest gap between ins and outs behind Illinois. And it was the state’s worst performance since 2006’s 6,673. In both years, just 46 percent of California van moves were in-bound.
In some ways, this is no surprise. This van net outflow data aligns with a recent state population report. California had a 105,211 more people leave to other states than arrive in the 12 months ended July 1. That net domestic migration was down from 163,922 in the previous 12 months but was the second highest outflow in seven years.
Please note the 2017 van-line stats do not signal a growing exodus out of the state. In fact, mobility in and out of the state by moving van is way down: Last year’s departures — as well as arrivals — are roughly 40 percent below the 2006 levels. It’s part of a growing trend of Americans moving less as the nation’s population ages and relocating gets pricier and less popular.
Plus incoming relocations exceeded moves out for California among the three companies in every year from 2008 through 2015. Adding it all up, 365,500 vans came to California in the last 11 years just 1,500 below the departure totals.
California migration patterns on a national basis are best through the prism of the state’s comparative size.
No state had more outbound van moves than California last year. And before you gulp and worry about the economic implications for the state, what about states just behind in this exits count: powerhouses No. 2 (Texas) or No. 3 (Florida)? Do not forget that no state had more arrivals via van than California as well.
For perspective, I compared the comings and goings of all states to respective tallies of households.
Last year’s exits from California came at a rate of 22 departures per 10,000 households, or 29th out of 48. Best? Arkansas, Vermont and Mississippi. Worst? Colorado, Virginia and Washington.
Conversely, Vans moved to California at a rate of 19 relocations per 10,000 households — 19th best. Tops was Colorado followed by Washington and Arizona. Worst was West Virginia, New York then Mississippi.
Basically, despite and the angst and headlines, California’s ability to win the battle for the moving-van crowd is middle-of-the-pack.
Source: mercurynews.com